SKU/Artículo: AMZ-B0DX7DNCW3
Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods, Occasional Paper Number Seven
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- In clear, articulate, unmistakable language, Master Sergeant Folker’s learned thesis sets forth the key opposing arguments in the long-standing controversy over the role of structuring in intelligence analysis. The controversy is largely one-sided, because proponents of intuitive analysis see no purpose in debating the issue, as they are completely satisfied with the status quo. It is only the structuring enthusiasts who see a need for drastic change in the way analysis is conducted. As Folker points out, supporters of the status quo include not only most analysts but most commanders as well. The structuring enthusiasts have never made progress in reforming the other side. And they won't make any progress until the superiority of structured analysis over intuitive analysis is proved, which Folker has taken a first giant step in doing. Folker challenges the Intelligence Community—indeed the entire U.S. government and the private sector as well—to design and conduct reliable tests to demonstrate which analytic approach is superior: structured or intuitive. Given the wide range of available structuring techniques, each one should be tested in competition with intuition. This thesis aims to dispel prevalent myths about structured analysis and demonstrate its immense value and power, encouraging students to challenge long-held beliefs and test new theories in military intelligence. Contents Preface Foreword Preamble The Research Problem The Art or Science Debate The Experiment Considerations and Limitations The Findings Implications and Recommendations Final Impression Bibliography About the Author
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